Brewers Rumors at Shortstop Can End - Gonzalez

The Brewers rumors as to who will be their next starting shortstop look to have come to an end as Alex Gonzalez has reportedly agreed to a one year deal with a vesting option. Gonzalez is 34 so the first thing to say is great news that he isn't getting a long term contract. We like this deal Alex has been around a while and you pretty much seem to know what to expect from him year in and year out which isn't that bad of thing on a rental player like he seems to be. Alex hit .241 last year with 15 home runs for the Braves and in the field had 12 errors, our guess is look for much the same in a Brewers uniform. Our other thought is that Alex broke into the game in 1998 so we would expect that he might provide some nice leadership up the all inportant middle of the field but we will have to see on that one. The biggest worry with loosing Prince as that is the way it is looking is that we are loosing a leader on the field so any player added better add to the clubhouse life in a positive way.

Runnin' Down a Dream - Game 5 for the Taking

by Tim Muma
10/14/2011 (1:50pm

Thanks to Randy Wolf's continued Busch Stadium dominance and just enough offense, the Milwaukee Brewers have regained home field advantage, put all the pressure on St. Louis and have a chance to head back to Miller Park with a 3-2 edge.

Some people have wondered if Chris Narveson should start Friday night, saving Zack Greinke for Game 6 and Yovani Gallardo for a potential Game 7. While the thinking isn't crazy - and many point to Greinke's unblemished home record - the right thing to do is throw your best available pitcher in this pivotal Game 5.

As with yesterday when I tried to give Brewers' fans some confidence going into Game 4 behind Wolf, here's another attempt to encourage the Crew's fans and keep the mojo going.

1) He Walks a Lonely Road...Really Well Lately

Early in the year, it seemed like Zack Greinke had all sorts of trouble pitching on the road while being unbeatable at home. It's been hard for him to shake the "road weary" moniker, but the facts show the former Cy Young Award winner has been brilliant as a visiting hurler in the 2nd half of the season.

Taking out one rough outing in Pittsburgh since July 16, Greinke's other 6 road starts have been excellent. In those 6 road starts in the 2nd half (again, leaving out the Pittsburgh start), Greinke's numbers are phenomenal...Cy Young caliber.

40 innings pitched

1.80 ERA (8 ER)

1.075 WHIP

41 SO -- 10 BB

.229 batting average against

.277 on-base percentage

.361 slugging percentage

.638 OPS (on-base plus slugging)

2) Everything Zen...at Busch

Greinke is another visiting pitcher who has enjoyed success at the newest Busch Stadium, though it's a small sample size. Still, in 3 career games there (2 starts) Greinke has posted a 2.35 ERA and a 0.913 WHIP in 15 1/3 innings pitched.His SO/9 rate is a healthy 7.6 at Game 5's venue and he has kept hitters to a minuscule slash line (average/on-base/slugging/OPS) of .218/.241/.345/.587...will the trend continue?

3) Two Out of Three Ain't Bad

Twenty-four times this season, St. Louis has hosted a 3 or 4-game series. In 11 of those occurrences (45.8%), the Cards have lost at least 2 games in the series. With the 2-3-2 format for the NLCS, this stretch acts like a 3-game series in St. Louis and the teams have split the first pair. I'll take a 50-50 chance of taking this road "series."

4) H(e)art of the Matter

Though Jaime Garcia has pitched very well at Busch this season, a few Brewers' hitters have excellent career statistics against him, and it's basically the 4 guys you'd expect. Corey Hart and the heart of the Brewers' current lineup (3-4-5) - Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks - enjoying swinging against the southpaw.

That quartet is hitting .322 (28-for-87) with 5 doubles, 4 home runs and 17 RBI, each with their own staggering stats...

Batting Averages - Hart (.409), Fielder (.304), Weeks (.294), Braun (.280)

On-Base Percentages - Hart (.458), Weeks (.455), Fielder (.320), Braun (.280)

Slugging Percentages - Weeks (.588), Braun (.560), Fielder (.522), Hart (.409)

OPS - Weeks (1.043), Hart (.867), Fielder (.842), Braun (.840)

Game 5 feels like the type of game that the "big boys" need to step up. Assuming Hart is leading off, those are some scary numbers that Garcia must face in the first 5 hitters - not to mention a red hot Jerry Hairston, Jr. batting 2nd. Plus, the Crew can truly play fast and loose on Friday - the way they play best - because they know a loss isn't devastating this time around.

Of course, there are no guarantees with numbers, but baseball more than any other sport tends to play true to its statistics. Still, in a one-game scenario, we could just as easily see both pitchers struggle and watch the bottom of both orders do the damage. Let's hope again that all the stats that favor Milwaukee ring true, and Garcia's gaudy home splits mean nothing in the playoffs.

Lineup Decision Looming for Game 4

by Tim Muma
10/13/2011 (1:20pm)

It's no secret the Brewers' bats have been quiet away from Miller Park for most of the season. Thus far, in 3 postseason game, Milwaukee's lumber continues to have about as much life as a Jeff Suppan fastball.

The Crew is batting just .211 (20-for-95) on the road in the 2011 playoffs, while sporting a .303 OBP in scoring 10 total runs as the visitor (3.3 runs/game). The offense's struggles have largely been overshadowed by the horrendous pitching performances by Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf, but it is something that needs to be addressed.

So far, among hitters with at least 3 at-bats on the road, only 3 hitters have hit over .250 - Jerry Hairston, Jr., Yuniesky Betancourt and Carlos Gomez. Mark Kotsay has a .500 OBP and a 1.500 OPS thanks to his home run and pair of walks on Wednesday, but you have to wonder how much his defense really hurt the Brewers.

The reason the club is truly scuffling, however, lies in its big bats' issues on the road...

Rickie Weeks: 1-for-13, 1 R, 0 RBI, 0 BB and 3 K (.077/.077/.077/.154)

Corey Hart: 2-for-12, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 0 BB and 4 K (.167/.154/.417/.571)

Ryan Braun: 2-for-10, 0 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB and 1 K (.200/.385/.300/.685)

Prince Fielder: 2-for-10, 0 R, 0 RBI, 2 BB and 2 K (.200/.385/.300/.685)

Combined, these four hitters are 6-for-45 (.133) with 3 runs, 3 RBI, 1 HR, 4 BB and 10 K. Fielder and Braun have to be the most disappointing with only 1 RBI and 0 runs between them. The Brewers simply need better production from their top two hitters. Never would anyone think of sitting those 2 guys, but Hart and Weeks could find some time on the bench in Game 4.

Cardinals' starter Kyle Lohse has struggled against the Brewers in his career and perhaps manager Ron Roenicke needs to shake up the lineup a bit. Overall, Lohse is 4-8 with a 4.80 ERA in his career against Milwaukee, including a 1.372 WHIP and a slash line of .276/.329/.438/.767, but some hitters have interesting splits.

It may be time to move Weeks out of the lineup - or at least out of the 5th spot. He is fighting himself right now, missing very hittable pitches and looking completely off-balance. Craig Counsell has big numbers against Lohse, but he won't start for Weeks - probably the right move. So unless Roenicke starts Taylor Green at 3rd (which won't happen), Weeks will be in the lineup on Thursday.

Hart has looked awful as of late and is apparently suffering from some sort of illness. On top of that, he is 2-for-17 against Lohse with 0 BB and 3 SO. That should open up right field for someone. Kotsay is 1-for-13 against him and his defense is sub-par. Thus, it would appear that Nyjer Morgan (RF) and Gomez (CF) should man the outfield in Game 4.

The two are a combined 5-for-14 versus Lohse, will bring the best defense to the field and hopefully add a spark to a lineup in need of some heat.

With the outfield set, George Kottaras catching Randy Wolf, and the infield most likely staying the same, the real adjustments need to come in the batting order. The way I see it, the Brewers have a couple of options - none of which seem all that great.

Option 1

Morgan
Hairston
Braun
Fielder
Betancourt
Weeks
Gomez
Kottaras
Wolf

Option 2

Morgan
Gomez
Braun
Fielder
Hairston
Betancourt
Weeks
Kottaras
Wolf

Option 3

Morgan
Hairston
Braun
Fielder
Weeks
Betancourt
Gomez
Kottaras
Wolf

Basically, it comes down to the 1st two spots in the lineup and the 5-6 holes. I prefer hitting Morgan and Hairston in front of Braun and Fielder because they have the best chance of reaching base, the greatest way to make your sluggers even more effective.

If Hairston bats 2nd, then it's a decision between Betancourt and Weeks behind Fielder. While Betancourt's hot hitting isn't going to scare the Cards from pitching around Fielder, I don't think the current Rickie Weeks is intimidating either. I'd go with the hot hand in Yuni B. hitting 5th and move Weeks to the 6-spot. If Morgan and Gomez bat 1-2, then Hairston is the easy call to fill the 5-hole.

Regardless of the order, the game will most likely hinge on the production of the top 5 hitters and the effectiveness of Randy Wolf.

I believe the Brewers will win tonight, making the NLCS a 3-game series with two potential games in Milwaukee - keep the faith.

Wolf a Beast at Busch

by Tim Muma
10/13/11 (11:00am)

Being down 2-1 while playing on the road isn't the ideal situation for the Milwaukee Brewers, but they're far from finished in this series. A win on Thursday night would ease the angst of Brewers' fans and guarantee an NLCS Game 6 in Milwaukee. To say Game 4 is a must win would be a touch of hyperbole, but its significance can't be overstated.

Fortunately for the Crew, Randy Wolf is pitching at Busch Stadium. Yes, it's a positive that the veteran southpaw toes the rubber in St. Louis despite his implosion in the NLDS. While Yovani Gallardo entered Game 3 with horrible numbers against the Cards (1-7, 5.66 ERA), Wolf has enjoyed a lot of success recently at Busch.

In his last two starts in St. Louis, Wolf has pitched extremely well, winning both contests...

16 IP, 9 H (.173 average), 2 ER (1.13 ERA), 3.0 SO/BB, 0 HR

For his career at the "new" Busch Stadium, Wolf has posted a 3.50 ERA with a 1.056 WHIP and .634 OPS against. Compared to his overall road numbers (4.22 ERA, 1.334 WHIP, .756 OPS), Wolf clearly enjoys pitching in that particular park.

Another reason for optimism lies in Wolf's success in 2011 against the trio of Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman - a combined 5-for-28 (.179 AVG/.212 OBP), 1 HR and 6 RBI. Although, word is now that Berkman will sit and Allen Craig will play instead - that still benefits Wolf if you look at his career numbers.

If you're interested in career stats...

Allen Craig - .067/.067/.067/.133......15 plate appearances

Berkman - .094/.256/.156/.413.........39 plate appearances

Holliday - .216/.326/.459/.785...........43 plate appearances

Pujols - .286/.306/.571/.878...............49 plate appearances

Yadier Molina - .257/.257/.429/.686.....35 plate appearances

Jon Jay - 1-for-6, 2 SO

And if you really want to go in-depth with the splits, Wolf has done well with Mike Everitt calling balls and strikes. Everitt is expected to be the home plate umpire for Game 4 and that usually works out beautifully for Wolf.

With Mike Everitt behind the dish...

27 IP, 3.33 ERA, 0.889 WHIP and a slash line of .172/.257/.290/.547.

Sure, this may seem a bit of a stretch to factor in an umpire, but every little advantage in the playoffs could mean the difference in the series. Perhaps Everitt tends to give more leeway on the inside corner, allowing Wolf's cutter to be more effective on the hands of righties. Maybe Everitt likes to call low strikes, meaning Wolf can live downstairs with his off-speed stuff and not get burned up in the zone. Whatever the reason, I'll be happy to see Everitt behind George Kottaras on Thursday.

For the sake of the Brewers - and the sanity of all the fans ready to write this team off - let's all hope that the statistics don't lie...at least for one more night.