Starters are THE Issue

by Tim Muma                                          5/24/2013
Tweet                                       7:30am



The Brewers have exactly 1 starting pitcher with an ERA below 4.50 entering play Friday night - that would be Kyle Lohse with a 3.76 mark, but he's skipping a start due to a sore elbow.

4.50
5.44
6.44
6.45

It's hard to blame Hiram Burgos - a true rookie - for
his struggles, but he's had his own issues

The large numbers above - ERA for the rest of the starting five - are almost incomprehensible and a guaranteed ticket to the cellar of any division (almost).

Each hurler has had his fair share of issues that has created these inflated stats and the club needs to hope for some sort of turnaround soon before they get buried by the middle of June.

Here's a quick look at what is troubling the four culprits and any glimmer of hope they're showing. The list is in order from "lowest" ERA to highest.



Yovani Gallardo

• PROBLEM
• Velocity down leads to strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) is down to 6.7 (9.0 career)
• Lack of command creating high pitch counts and just 5.8 IP per start
• HOPE
• June is his best month for ERA (2.97) and K/9 rate (9.9); July best for WHIP (1.245)Home run and walk rates are down slightly from career average
• ANALYSIS
• Needs to challenge hitters, especially early in the count. Nibbling for corners creating high pitch counts and falling behind hitters. Must use 4-seam fastball more and 2-seam fastball less (http://www.brewersmix.com/2013/05/gallardos-problem-his-fastball-of-choice.html).

Marco Estrada

• PROBLEM
• Home runs are an issue at 1.9 HR per 9 IP - higher than his poor career rate (1.4)
• Strikeouts per walk (K/BB) more than 2 points below last season
• HOPE
• Zero HR allowed in last 2 starts (12.2 IP)
• With runners in scoring position, opponents have a .191 AVG and .555 OPS
• ANALYSIS
• His fastball isn't really good enough to be a consistent starter, so he must utilize his changeup more frequently and with impeccable command. He remains in the top 20 of NL starters in K/9. Too often leaving pitches up and over plate, leading to 17% of fly balls ending up as home runs - 3rd highest in the NL, 6th in all of baseball.

Wily Peralta

• PROBLEM
• With 2 outs and runners in scoring position: Hitters have .434 AVG and 1.101 OPS
• Big innings early in games:  26 of 37 runs allowed are in first 3 frames (70%)



Peralta struggled with command in AAA last year
and the issue has returned to start 2013

• 6 runs allowed once
• 5 runs allowed twice
• 3 runs allowed twice
• HOPE
• Ground ball percentage of 54%, good for 7th among NL starters
• Batting average of balls in play (BABIP) is 4th highest among NL starters (.337)
• Suggests some bad luck and poor defense
• ANALYSIS
• He's been burned by some tough luck bloops and broken bat hits, but that's also indicative of leaving pitches up in the zone - if they're down, they're probably outs. I still believe he can succeed, but needs to find a feel for all his pitches and command them. Traditionally a slow starter, we hope he warms up with the weather.

Hiram Burgos

• PROBLEM
• Seen as a control pitcher, 3.4 BB/9 a big number for a normally 2.5 BB/9 guy
• Strikeouts per walk at 1.64 K/BB - generally over 2.25 K/BB in minors
• HOPE
• Allowing just 14.3% line drives (LD%), tied for 6th among NL starters
• In 477 minor league innings, 3.58 ERA, 3.14 K/BB, 1.247 WHIP
• ANALYSIS
• His numbers took a major hit with that 3-inning, 10 ER outing against the Reds on May 11. He's only thrown 29.1 frames at this level and probably doesn't have the pure "stuff" to be great. Needs to rely heavily on command and changing speeds as his fastball won't blow anyone away.

Gallardo's consistency is needed, but
he's far from himself thus far

The Brewers don't need everyone to pitch at an All-Star level or even close to it. If each hurler could be average to above-average, the offense and recently effective bullpen can take care of the rest. The problem is that no one is really stepping up to be a "stopper" and the rest of the team can't keep up.

We'll see what happens over the next 26 games, which would get us to June 20th after a 9-game road trip through Miami, Cincinnati and Houston. If the starters don't have a semblance of recovery before then, the season might be on the brink with 3 months to go.

Weeks Has Negative Value...Can He Be Dealt?

by Tim Muma                                                5/24/2013
Tweet                                             7:00am




Closing in on 1,000 strikeouts in his career, it
 only feels like half have come in 2013

Let me start this off by saying that I am not blaming Rickie Weeks for the Brewers' 18-27 start this season (though he has been a big problem), as that distinction goes to the starting staff which owns the NL's worst ERA and WHIP.

However, Weeks has gotten to a point now where the Brewers need to somehow explore any option possible to deal him elsewhere.

Offense in 2013
.169 AVG
.281 OBP
.266 SLG (this is truly astounding)
.547 OPS


It's not just the offensive offensive (see what I did there?) numbers this season...his defense is still awful as well.

Whether it's the "eye test" to see how he actually looks in the field or some advanced defensive metrics, Weeks continues to be, arguably, the worst defensive 2nd baseman in baseball. I have examples of each...


Eye Test
Thursday afternoon at Miller Park, the Dodgers had the bases loaded with 1 out in the 2nd inning. Carl Crawford hit a ground ball which couldn't have been more than 5 feet to Weeks' left, yet the ball went cleanly into right field for 2 runs.

Why?  Weeks' first step was slow (common), he took a poor angle toward the ball (common), tried to play the ball off to the side instead of getting in front of the ball, and then was slow to get his glove on the ground. I'd say 95% of 2nd basemen easily get the out at 2nd, allowing only one run to score and possibly sparing his pitcher from a big inning. A few of them - coupled with a solid shortstop - actually turn two and end the frame.

Instead, Weeks' plays the out into a hit, opening up the flood gates for another Brewers' defeat.


Defensive Stats
A decent "catch all" defensive statistic used to compare players to the average of those at their position is called Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Basically, this would judge a player's ability to make a successful play based on what the "average" player at his position would make. Thus, if he fails on a play most guys make, he loses points and gains points for making plays most guys don't.

With these stats it's best to take them based on a 3-year sample and average that out to get a per-year number. Keep in mind that a DRS of 0 is average for a season.

Weeks' DRS:
2010:   -16
2011:   -5
2012:   -30

3-year average:  -17...By far the worst over that period (-8 is next closest)


Think about it, in essence it could be seen that Weeks alone cost the Brewers 30 runs in 2012. Looking at this season so far, Weeks is already at -8 in less than 400 innings.

Regardless of his offense, the 'D' has
been a problem...forever

So for those that say his defense is better...maybe a tick since he first came up, but considering his age and injuries, one could argue he is no better at all. And as for his "good" DRS of -5 in 2011, remember that he played far fewer games that season due to injury.

Weeks' saving grace for his poor defense has always been his bat, especially his power as a 2nd sacker. Since he is slugging under .300 with a sub-.300 OBP, he is bringing absolutely zero value to the club.

I realize lots of guys in the clubhouse like Rickie, but I know for a fact there are players who are frustrated with his play (especially the pitchers) in the field and have no confidence in him at the dish - and those are hidden negative effects that some overlook when teams struggle.



Who Would Take Him?

Kansas City Royals
Their manger Ned Yost has always loved Weeks, especially for his hard-nosed play and effort. He was left to let Weeks work through his struggles as a youngster with the Brewers and probably believes Weeks is poised to turn it around.

Second base was a concern for the Royals since the spring and it continues to be a problem for them as Chris Getz has number similar to Weeks, but has never proven himself consistently at the Big League level. At nearly 40 years old, Miguel Tejada has filled in admirably, but they see him as a utility player who, if used too often, will break down and fade.


If Ned starts to freak out about his team or their
chances of making the playoffs, KC may bite

Meanwhile, after the trade to get James Shields from Tampa Bay (dealing one of the game's best prospects) and the signing of Ervin Santana, the Royals are in "win now" mode for this season and next, thus more willing to take a chance on a high-paid veteran.

The Brewers would still eat some of the contract, but could possibly get a decent young arm with upside (e.g. Brooks Pounders) and rid themselves of a chunk of Weeks' contract.



Baltimore Orioles
Another team in position to win this year after their thrilling 2013 season. They've lacked consistency at 2nd due to Brian Roberts' continued injuries. Alexi Casilla is currently playing there with poorer stats than Weeks and not much MLB success overall.

The Orioles have some money to spare and would love to capitalize on a division that is showing a fair amount of parity right now...a definite window for Baltimore. Also, would J.J. Hardy push for bringing in Weeks? I'm not sure what their relationship was like, but that could play a role.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Admittedly, chances are slim they will get any real value or cash relief with Weeks' at his lowest selling point in his career, but desperate teams, especially ones trying to reach the playoffs for the first time in a long time (see: Royals), occasionally reach beyond their usual grasp.

And if Yost has any pull in KC, we know he is quite the panic-driven type of guy that will do anything to avoid yet another failure (see: Milwaukee 2008).

Gallardo's Problem - His Fastball of Choice

by Tim Muma                                                5/13/2013
Tweet                                             7:00am



The Milwaukee Brewers organization have expressed concern about Yovani Gallardo and rightfully so after he pitched only 4 innings on Friday, while still throwing 100 pitches (only 53 for strikes).

Based on the numerous reports and my own research, there are two parts of his game that are an issue right now - one physical, one mental.


1) Mental - Pitch Selection

Most likely in an effort to curb the amount of home runs he allows, Gallardo has thrown far more 2-seam fastballs this season than in prior years. For those who don't know, the 2-seam fastball has more downward and lateral movement (inside to a righty in Gallardo's case) than a 4-seam fastball. Gallardo's 4-seamer is rather straight and is the main cause of his 53 HR allowed the past 2 years.

Gallardo needs to get back to his strengths -
four-seam heater and the big curve

The problem, I believe, is that he has fallen in love with it a bit too much, and since it's more difficult to command for him, he's throwing more pitches outside of the zone, falling behind in counts, getting hurt on too many hitters' counts and throwing far too many pitches.

The last 2 seasons, Gallardo had thrown the 2-seamer 13.9% and 14.5% of the time, while his 4-seamer was tossed 45.3% and 41.7% respectively.

This year, he's only throwing the 4-seamer 31% of the time and the 2-seamer on 24.5% of his pitches. This is a huge swing in the selection of his pitches and probably a problem right now.

I obviously understand that the opposition dictates strategy, but he's relying on his (at best) 3rd-best pitch almost a third of the time. There needs to be a balance of pitcher's strength versus hiters' weaknesses.

Not to mention, his best success has come when he limits the 2-seamer more and utilizes his straight heater often.

*April 18 vs. San Francisco (Best start of the season)
6 IP (92 pitches), 5 H, 1 R, 6 K, 1 BB

The pitch breakdown for that game:  34.8% four-seam fastball...14.1% two-seam (+20.7% 4-seam)


*April 29 vs. Pittsburgh (2nd best start)
7 IP (104 pitches), 3 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 2 BB

The pitch breakdown for that game:  45.2% four-seam fastball...20.2% two-seam (+25% 4-seam)

In the other games, the pitch types are all over the map. In 2 starts he threw more 2-seam fastballs than any other pitch. Against the Reds on Friday, he threw less than 30% four-seam fastballs and 29% curveballs.

Interestingly, his 3rd best start of the season against San Diego, he tossed 42.6% four-seamers and less than 6% of the time his two-seamer.

So to recap, his 3 best starts overall - and only 3 wins of the season - had this formula:
1) Throw 4-seam fastball at least 34% of the time
2) Throw at least 20% more 4-seam fastballs than 2-seam fastballs

Those results netted:  3-0, 19.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, .219 BA, .293 OBP, .260 SLG, 1.22 WHIP

Far better than his overall numbers this season!



2) Physical - Lower Velocity

To a lesser extent in terms of issues, Gallardo is clearly lacking zip on his fastball and the evidence illustrates the dip. In 2010 and 2011, Gallardo's 4-seam fastball velocity was at 92.6 for the season - the best of his career.

It's difficult to doubt the WBC preparation and start
vs. the US hasn't affected his arm

Last year there was decent-sized drop down to 91.7 which is definitely noticeable, though not alarming. One needs to consider he threw the most innings of his career in 2011: 207.1 frames during the regular season, then another 19 in the playoffs (226.2 in all). Thus, a dip was somewhat expected.

So what's the deal this season?

Worst case scenario is that there is some sort of undetected injury that's limiting him in some capacity. It could also be a case of a pitcher's arm simply giving to the effects of wear and tear over time. Some hurler's shelf life is shorter than others. It could also be a mechanical flaw in his delivery, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

Lastly, it could all go back to pitching in the World Baseball Classic. Even more so than relievers, starting pitchers need to build arm strength up in a controlled, step-by-step way to be ready for the regular season. Of course, Gallardo and a number of other MLB pitchers (including Marco Estrada) had to ramp up their programs and fire hard during "meaningful" games much earlier than usual.

Gallardo pitched March 8th in the WBC - about three weeks sooner than normal. When he returned to Brewers' camp to finish Spring Training, he only threw 114 pitches over 4 starts (28.5 per game), including 36 over 6.1 innings in his last game. That is no way at all to get a pitcher ready for Opening Day and beyond.

With all of that factored, he may simply be working through a dead arm period as some of his MPH from games actually indicate.

First 3 starts of the season: Average fastball between 90.2-90.4 (building arm, increasing velocity)

Next 2 starts of the season: Average of 91, then an average of 91.4 (getting back to normal)



Velocity becomes less of a concern with better
command - and hopefully both return soon

Sixth start of the season: Average fastball dips to 90.1, mainly due to 108 pitches in 6.2 innings in previous start - including 22 pitches in the last frame (only 7 strikes)

Last 2 starts of the season: Average at 90.5, then 90.1 in Cincinnati (lowest of the season)

That progression of starting low, moving up to a peak, then dropping back down again is a clear sign of an arm that was not ready for real action and one that has to fight through some fatigue. It's probably exacerbated by the WBC tune-up and poor buildup leading into the opener. He needs about 3 more starts to see if the velocity can get into the 91.5 range to lessen the concern.

Outs on the Bases - Out of Control with Roenicke

by Tim Muma                                                  5/10/2013
Tweet                                            7:00am



Despite my conservative nature as a player and coach, I actually enjoy and appreciate aggressive baserunning as a strategic way to take extra bases and put pressure on the defense. However, there are few things I hate more in baseball than making stupid outs on the bases.

Whether it's trying stretch a single into a double or the
contact play (above), outs on the bases are deflating

As I've said before, there is a fine line between aggressive and dumb - the Brewers have been a little bit too much of the latter on the bases.

Going for an extra base on a hit or trying to steal one has its place depending on a variety of
circumstances, including score, inning, home/away, current batter, on-deck batter, pitcher, arm of the catcher, arm of the outfielder...I could go on and on.

While this might seem unrealistic to analyze while on base, these should all be taken into consideration before the pitch and quickly assessed.

Of course, this came to light on Wednesday night as the Brewers knocked out 12 safeties at hitter-friendly Miller Park, yet only managed 1 tally in a 4-1 loss to Texas. Twice the Brewers ran into outs that cost them at least one run and potentially a few more.

Segura's miscue was not of the aggressive
nature - but it was just as frustrating

Jean Segura decided to slow up on his way to the plate and Jonathan Lucroy didn't exactly help out, resulting in an out at home (though he still looked safe). Then Aramis Ramirez took off for 3rd on a pitch in the dirt and was thrown out. Yes, Lucroy waved him over, but the onus is ALWAYS on the baserunner in that situation. He knows how quickly he reacted, where the ball is exactly and if he has a legitimate chance to be safe.

Thus in that frame, the Brewers banged out 2 triples and a double, but only scored once.

The whole "outs on the bases" trend is nothing new since Ron Roenicke took the manager's job in 2011. Considering the power and general offense prowess of this club, his aggressive style has done more harm than good, eliminating baserunners and killing rallies fueled by the bats, not their legs.

Some may say, "It didn't hurt them last year, they led the NL in runs scored." I can't argue that their offense was really good, but imagine if they didn't have 60 outs on the bases, which tied for the 2nd most in the league. That is a ton of outs on players who already reached base safely.

Let's not forget that Aramis Ramirez was injured
stretching a single into a double

The point is, the Brewers need to pick their spots much more carefully so as not to create outs that shouldn't even exist.

Here's a quick breakdown...

2011 Brewers
74 outs on the bases (3rd most)
21 outs at 3rd base (tied for 3rd most)
27 outs at home plate (tied for 3rd most)

The World Champion Cardinals that season had 9 fewer outs on the bases - not a ton different - but they had 9 fewer at home plate. That makes a huge impact when talking about "lost runs." Furthermore, the Brewers were average when it came to taking extra bases successfully (41%), while the Cards were 3rd best (43%).


2012 Brewers
60 outs on the bases (tied for 2nd most)
14 outs at 3rd base (tied for 2nd most)
23 outs at home plate (tied for 4th most)

The World Champion Giants that season made the 3rd fewest outs on the bases (48) and made the fewest at home plate (10). The Brewers success rate was even worse this season at just 38%, tied for the 2nd-worst mark in the NL.


2013 Brewers
14 outs on the bases (2nd most)
4 outs at 3rd base (2nd most)
5 outs at home plate (tied for 2nd most)



With a power club like the Brewers - which includes
Yuni B. right now - more cautious running is a must

It's very early yet, but it's interesting to note that St. Louis actually has the most outs on the bases,
including the most at 3rd and home.

However, just like in 2011, their extra base success percentage is better than Milwaukee's at 43% to 39% - meaning they're making better decisions and executing more efficiently.

Again, there's a balance between what the Brewers are able to successfully accomplish on the bases and at the dish, but it's frustrating to see bad decisions on the bases snuff out big innings or take any runs off the board.