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Carlos Gomez to the Seattle Mariners is Worth a Discussion

by Tim Muma                                           11/30/2014

AP Photo - Associated Press
Depending on who you believe, the Milwaukee Brewers are either wasting their time trying to compete in 2015 or they enough horses to make an "all-in" run this season before numerous contracts expire and key pieces bolt.

This reality puts management in a tough position where they are looking for a balance of legitimate success this season without completely mortgaging the future.

Could the key piece to a smooth transition lie in their talented, yet frustrating center fielder, Carlos Gomez?

The Seattle Mariners are checking in with multiple teams on landing a right-handed outfield bat, preferably one with power.

The players include:  Matt Kemp of the Dodgers, Yoenis Cespedes of the Red Sox and Justin Upton of the Braves. They've also been rumored to be contacting free agent Nelson Cruz, but it doesn't seem likely he'd sign with Seattle.

AP Photo - Associated Press
If we focus on the three names mentioned in trade talks, Gomez actually has more value than all of them for multiple reasons.

First of all, Gomez is still a Gold Glove caliber center fielder, whereas the other three would be pegged for corner outfield duty. While Cespedes has a cannon, his overall defense isn't great. Kemp is no longer the outfielder he was before his injuries and Upton would be a solid left fielder, but less impressive in right.

Gomez brings with him elite defense in center where he would be extremely valuable in spacious Safeco Field. Though his defensive metrics slipped last season, the three-year look (which is the minimum you should use) still rates at the top.

And, of course, Gomez's power and speed combination is a deadly threat offensively. He has averaged 22 HR and 37 stolen bases. Gomez has also boosted his OBP to .338 and .358 the past two seasons, pushing his OPS to .838 in that time.

Gomez's OBP has bumped up due to 29 hit-by-pitches and an elevated batting average. Gomez hit .284 in each of the past two seasons, but it's been assisted by an extremely lucky batting average of balls in play (BABIP), sitting at .341 during that period. The NL average was .299.

Meanwhile, Go-Go's contract situation also trumps the rest of the group.

He has two years remaining at $8 million and $9 million respectively. Both Upton and Cespedes have only one year left, meaning they'd both be rentals. On top of that, Upton is due to make $14.5 million while Cespedes will earn $10.5 million in 2015.

As for Kemp, he's under contract through 2019, but he'll cost $21 million next season and $21.5 million in each of the last four years of the deal. In all, he will be owed $107 million from now to the end of his contract.

That's a hefty price tag for a club who already has big deals in place with Robinson Cano and Felix Hernandez. There also needs to be some concerns with Kemp's durability over the long haul.

Jeffrey Phelps - Associated Press
That brings us back to Gomez, under contract for two years at great value. He's in a prime defensive position in a ballpark that begs for an elite center fielder. Gomez has his flaws also, but we probably see them more clearly than other clubs.

Personally, I'm worried about a major injury and nagging ones that will sap his speed and range. He plays with a high motor, but he also has the reckless abandon that lends itself to injuries, dumb outs on the bases, and enough downside that it may be worth moving on.

So, what would the Mariners be willing to part with remains the question? If the Brewers were really going to move Gomez to Seattle, however, at least two of the following three players would need to be included.

Taijuan Walker - Starting Pitcher

Chris Young - Canadian Press, Associated Press
The 22-year-old right-hander would be the main target. He's Major League ready and would be under team control for a half decade. In 53 big league innings (8 starts), Walker owns a 2.89 ERA and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings.

Walker throws 93-96 MPH with relatively ease, utilizing tremendous arm action and velocity. He also throws a cutter that is said to be developing extremely well and sits in the low 90s. Walker also features a solid curveball. Though it can be a touch inconsistent, when he's going well, the 12-6 drop is sharp and makes him a legit ace.

Walker was rated as the number 11 prospect (pre-2014) overall according to Baseball America, and top 10 prior to the last two seasons by and Baseball Prospectus. He has a huge ceiling, tremendous stuff, and by all accounts, a great makeup to go with his strong frame (6'4" 225 lbs.).

D.J. Peterson - Third Base, First Base

The Mariners 2nd-rated prospect in their system a year ago, Peterson would be on the fast track to take over third base in 2016 for the Brewers (maybe earlier if Aramis Ramirez gets hurt). Peterson would be the young, stud third baseman they've been lacking for years.

Between the high-A and double-A levels in 2014, Peterson blasted 31 home runs, 31 doubles and drove in 111 runs while posting a .297/.360/.552/.912 slash line. Also just 22 years old, Peterson has already been rated as above average with his hit tools, power and arm, though his overall defense still needs some work.

James Paxton - Starting Pitcher

Already 26 years old, Paxton's ceiling isn't as high as the other two, but he'd be a valuable, controlled left-hander in the rotation. In 17 career starts with the Mariners (13 last season), Paxton owns a 2.66 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.

His home run rate has been good thus far, even away from pitcher-friendly Safeco. Paxton found himself on the disabled list for a time in 2014, but he should be fine moving forward, hopefully with his mid-90s fastball and tight breaking ball intact.


Now keep in mind, the Brewers don't need to trade Gomez. Melvin should only deal him if he's getting top potential or ability in terms of young MLB talent or prospects. It is important to examine these possibilities to cash in on Gomez's value when it's potentially at its highest.

Brad Rempel - Associated Press
There could also be smaller pieces included on both sides of a trade. For example, it would be ideal to have a right-handed hitting center fielder to go with Gerardo Parra should Gomez be dealt. A guy like Austin Jackson could fit the bill, though he's a touch pricey.

The other additional possibility, especially if Taijuan Walker comes to Milwaukee, is to move Yovani Gallardo to further upgrade the offense and/or the bullpen.

Either way, I hope Melvin has at least been gauging the interest of his former assistant and current Seattle general manager, Jack Zduriencik - another reason a deal between the two clubs could be struck.

A move like this could very well allow the Brewers to remain as competitive (or better) in 2015, as well as set them up better for the future.

Picking Up Gallardo's Option Makes Sense on a Number of Levels for Milwaukee Brewers

by Tim Muma                                                     10/25/2014

Despite a largely successful career as a homegrown talent in the Milwaukee Brewers' farm system, Yovani Gallardo has received plenty of criticism throughout his eight-year tenure. Part of this stems from the fans' expectations of him becoming a true ace, something that never quite developed.

AP Photo - Associated Press
However, if you simply look at Yo objectively, without the perception of what he should've been, you'll find a valuable starter with a consistent track record.

Looking at the traditional statistics, Gallardo owns a 3.69 career ERA with an 89-64 record. His WHIP sits a touch high at 1.30, but he boasts a solid 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings and .247 batting average against.

In his seven full seasons, Gallardo has five season with an ERA under 3.75 while tossing at least 180 frames in six of those years and twice reaching 200 innings pitched. He also became the franchise's all-time leader in strikeouts (1,226) thanks in large part to four seasons of 200+ strikeouts.

He's not without flaws, of course. Gallardo nibbles around the edges of the zone far too often, leading to long at-bats, high pitch counts and short outings. He's also had his struggles with the long ball at time, normally when he falls behind in the count and has to groove his four-seam (and straight) fastball over the plate.

So as the deadline approaches for the Brewers to decide on Gallardo's $13 million option for 2015, there has been some debate over whether or not he's worth that kind of money. Though it is a hefty price tag, there are a handful of reasons it makes perfect sense for the Crew to pay up for one more season.

The Price of Pitching

On the surface, $13 million sounds like a ton, but you have to look at the big picture. No, Gallardo isn't a top-tier hurler talent-wise. That's also what keeps his potential salary down. The $13 million is right in line for a starting pitcher of his caliber. You want a true ace, the money is far greater.

  • Clayton Kershaw - Signed 7-year, $215 million in 2014 ($30.7 million per year)
  • Justin Verlander - Signed 7-year, $180 million in 2013 ($25.7 million per year)
  • Felix Hernandez - Signed 7-year, $175 million in 2013 ($25 million per year)
  • Adam Wainwright - Signed 5-year $97.5 million in 2014 ($19.5 million per year)

AP Photo - Associated Press
Some of the other top starters either signed their deals before they became stars or are ready to become free agents this offseason or after the 2015 campaign. Just keep an eye on the type of deals the other aces get such as Jon Lester, Johnny Cueto, Max Scherzer and David Price.

Also keep in mind that Gallardo's option is a 1-year commitment, whereas those contracts above are for five-to-seven years. On the one hand, it's great to lock up a stud hurler for that one.

However, if he gets hurt and/or goes downhill fast - as pitchers are apt to do - the contract becomes an albatross and the fan base has more reason to whine and complain.

If Gallardo were a free agent this season - which he would be if the Brewers didn't accept the option - he would certainly be a pricey, second-tier choice. As a 29-year-old (at start of 2015 season) with his numbers, consistency and general health, he would easily command a similar year salary, but for three or four years.

The Importance of Pitching Depth

As much as supreme talent at the top of a rotation is desired, all MLB front office's realize pitching depth is vital over the long 162-game season. It's rare any club will only use five or six starters throughout the year, making additional quality arms extremely valuable.

Pitchers are prone to sudden and severe injuries thanks to the unnatural, stressful use of their arms at such a high level. The Brewers certainly have risks on their team, particularly Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza. Though Lohse has been a workhorse, he's entering his age-36 season and has tossed 796.1 innings over the last four seasons.

Garza, as most know, is prone to at least one injury per season that costs him at least three or four starts (and often more).

You also need to plan for ineffectiveness, especially with varying questions about potential starters like Jimmy Nelson, Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada. Rarely do teams get through a full season without using seven starters, thus making depth more valuable than many want to accept.

Trade Pieces for Offense

The flip side of the depth argument is that if affords the Brewers ample opportunity to make a trade from a position of depth (starting pitching) for a consistent bat they need to complement the rest of the lineup.

It's extremely difficult to predict trades in MLB because most don't have the inside knowledge of each club's big picture plans. If a team is looking to make one last push in 2015, the maybe Gallardo or Lohse appeal to them as consistent veterans with only one year of commitment. If a team wants a long term view or value, then guys like Nelson, Estrada and minor league arms come into play.

Regardless, keeping Gallardo opens up more options for Milwaukee to make a deal if they're targeting a bat or another team is eyeing more pitching.

It's safely assumed (and even reported by some) that the option will be picked up. There will be many who argue it's "a waste of money" and he's "not an ace," but they'd be missing the big picture and failing to understand value.

Al Brehman - Associated Press
Sure, Gallardo will continue to frustrate at times with high pitch counts and struggles to get out of the sixth inning. He'll also look like a Cy Young arm for stretches, especially in June with his career 2.95 ERA and .641 OPS against. Or, of course, he could be part of a trade and we can watch him from a distance.

No matter what happens, it's a sound baseball decision to accept Gallardo's $13 million option for 2015. 

Ron Roenicke: In Four Seasons, Has He Earned Another Year or a Ticket Out of Milwaukee?

by Tim Muma                                                             10/1/2014

**To be fair and honest, I’ve never been much of a Ron Roenicke fan. I’ll also admit I’d probably be critical toward the decisions of about 99% of the people the Milwaukee Brewers would select to become the next skipper.

Part of this comes from jealousy – I mean, who wouldn’t want to run a Major League Baseball team? Part of it stems from being able to “armchair” manage with no real consequences to my “decisions.” And lastly, the irrationality of being a fan means you often have unrealistic expectations.**

With that as a backdrop, I do everything I can to look at players, coaches and the manager with as much of an objective view as possible.

So the question must be asked, should Ron Roenicke be given another year or does he need to go?

Gene J. Puskar - Associated Press
The most difficult part of judging a manager’s value to a club is simply trying to figure out how much he actually impacts success or failure as opposed to the players’ talent. One could argue that a bad manager has more of a negative impact than a good skipper has a positive one.

Some people say that over the course of 162 games, the guy writing out the lineup card only accounts for 3-5 games at the most. It’s certainly true that players ultimately decide the outcomes, and those players are mostly selected by the general manager, not the field manager.

But, until a franchise takes the step of putting a computer in charge – maybe something Bill Veeck would have done now – you still need a leader to bring the talent together and make on-field decisions.

His job is, and always will be, to put those players in the best position to succeed. That could mean stroking egos, playing the numbers, favoring matchups and any number of behind-the-scenes or on-the-field determinations.

By all accounts, it sounds like Roenicke has always been well-liked by his players. He is a guy who keeps the clubhouse harmonious, avoids calling out players in the media, and generally has an even-keeled demeanor through thick and thin.

However, some recent comments by Jonathan Lucroy and Doug Melvin make you wonder if Roenicke has created too much of casual atmosphere that lacks accountability, urgency and intensity when it’s needed.

Gene J. Puskar - Associated Press
Lucroy, following the Brewers’ loss that officially knocked them out of the playoff race, said, “We were in the driver’s seat for a while, then we got complacent. We got what we deserved.”

There are few things more disheartening to hear about your team, especially a group that hasn’t won anything. For Lucroy to say that, a guy who grinds out at-bats throughout the season, is very telling and a huge knock against the manager.

Then Melvin questioned the motivation of some of the players, saying he wants to “find out who cares about winning and losing in the clubhouse. If there’s guys in there who don’t care about winning, they probably won’t be here.”

Another rather damning comment, this time from the man in charge of bringing in the talent. He wouldn’t have made that statement unless he had spoken with players or coaches who at least implied these guys existed.

How much that falls on the manager can be tough to gauge as you can’t necessarily alter someone’s reasons for competing. However, the question again has to be raised if Roenicke helps to incubate and cultivate this demeanor among some players.

Ultimately, the 2014 season came crashing down due to a team-wide offensive slump late and inconsistent play overall after June. Many (including myself) wondered if Roenicke should have been doing more to optimize the lineup and better utilize his hitters’ style and skill, which is an area Melvin and company mentioned as one item up for evaluation.

In the end, the manager has to be held partly responsible for not being able to halt such a long, ugly skid. He appeared to have the mentality of “sticking with the plan” as being the way to go because changing things up would be a sign of panic or a lack of trust in players.

His assessment was very wrong. And now, considering his last three years as manager have produced little but disappointment, Roenicke’s head is on the block.  

In his four seasons at the helm, the Brewers have gone 335-313 (.517), with three winning campaigns, one division title, and one playoff series victory. Outside of their NL Central championship, Milwaukee has finished in third place twice and once in fourth.

Of course, take away his rookie campaign and the record plummets to 239-247.

Roenicke’s first year leading the club was a huge success, though it ended with an NLCS loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in 2011. That team won a franchise-best 96 games behind the pitching of Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum, as well as the power bats of Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Corey Hart.
Morry Gash - Associated Press

Despite the terrific run, many had harsh criticism for Roenicke’s decisions in the NLCS.

Pitching Greinke in St. Louis in Game 5 of the NLCS, instead of in Miller Park in Game 6 where he was 11-0 with a 3.13 ERA in the regular season. The Brewers lost 7-1 to go down 3-2 in the series.

That allowed Roenicke to pitch Marcum for a second time in the NLCS when he had given up 12 earned runs in 8.2 innings (12.46 ERA) in his first two playoff starts. He gave up 4 earned runs in one inning of work as St. Louis knocked out Milwaukee to head to the World Series.

Not to mention, Roenicke also had Mark Kotsay start in center field in game 3, opting for the 35-year-old with no range who hadn’t played center in two years, instead of Carlos Gomez or Nyjer Morgan.

Thus, even in his most celebrated season, many wondered if the Brewers won in spite of the manager.
Then in 2012, despite the loss of Fielder, the Brewers looked poised to compete again. The offense finished the season first in runs scored, but the pitching was in the bottom third of ERA.

The starting pitching was still solid overall; it was the bullpen that struggled mightily. That is, of course, the area a manager has the most impact. Both during the game and throughout the course of a season, how the relievers are handled has many lasting effects.

The team got off to a slow start and battled back late, but they still fell short of their potential. How much blame falls on the manager for that season?

The 2013 campaign has to be a mulligan for Roenicke. Injuries to key players, Braun’s suspension and a host of other factors put the team behind the 8-ball all season.

However, 2014 was Roenicke’s chance to shine. A solid rotation, talented bats with lots of power potential, and a revamped bullpen all played in his favor.

The Brewers, for once, got off to a terrifically hot start and many pointed to the Crew’s late-season success under Roenicke as a sign Milwaukee had a clear path to the postseason. Even the Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds seemed to be giving the Brewers the division with a combination of poor play and injuries to vital players.

One spot not discussed as often this season was the use of the bullpen. It certainly looks like it was mismanaged again. Was overuse early in the season to blame for Tyler Thornburg’s injury? Signs definitely point to that as he appeared in 18 of the team’s first 34 games.

Then there was the ridiculous situation in Atlanta when Will Smith came into a game having not warmed up at all in the bullpen. He wasn’t the same dominating reliever after that incident.

Finally, tack on Roenicke’s stubbornness in having an “8th-inning guy” and sometimes a “7th-inning” guy, and no wonder the bullpen had ups and downs.

AP Photo - Associated Press
Ultimately, we all know what happened as the season wore down. An epic collapse like this one, where everything went wrong and took over like an avalanche, often leaves few survivors.

While the players need to accept responsibilities for their shortcomings, at some point, the manager – the leader – needed to find a way to pull his guys out from the impending doom.

He couldn’t do it. The Brewers wasted a golden opportunity and changes are on the horizon.

Though firing a manager shouldn’t happen because of one season, and many will continue to tell you he makes little difference, there is plenty of evidence from Roenicke’s tenure to say his time is up.

I don’t know what Melvin and Mark Attanasio will decide, but if they choose to let him go, it will have been earned.

Five Telling Statistics That Doomed the Milwaukee Brewers' Offense

by Tim Muma                                                          9/30/2014

Baseball lends itself to be consumed by numbers, twisting and bending the precise meaning of each statistic throughout one game, one month or one season.

AP Photo - Associated Press
There are times certain stats are deemed less important or more valuable depending on the circumstances. Managers, fans and the media are constantly trying to decipher the magical code of these numbers, hoping to discover the perfect formula for long-term, consistent success.

The Milwaukee Brewers' offense is an interesting case study. The 2014 group of hitters produced the second-most runs per game for most of the season. In fact, through 103 games - 64% of the season - the lineup averaged 8.8 hits and 4.44 runs per game.

Had they kept up that production, the Brewers would've finished 4th in hits and 2nd in runs in the NL. Instead, they scored only 3.3 runs per contest from July 25th to the end, dropping the club to 6th in runs and 9th in hits.

As everyone tries to determine what happened, the key lies in how the league adjusted to Milwaukee's style while the hitters failed to change their ways even slightly.

These five statistics should shine some light on their struggles late in the season, and some areas the front office may need to address moving into 2015. And here's a shocking spoiler alert: None of them have to do with strikeouts!

1) First-Pitch Swings
  • In what should be a surprise to no one, the Brewers swung at the highest percentage of first pitches in MLB, hacking 33.2% of the time. While it's true the first offering may be the best a hitter sees in some cases, pitchers certainly threw fewer quality strikes and fastballs to start off Milwaukee at-bats.
  • In the latter part of the season, it's reasonable to deduct this played a large role in the Brewers' issues. Weak contact, 0-1 counts and early outs all contribute to poor offensive percentages in the present inning and as the game wears on.

2) Percentage of 3-1 Counts 
  • Milwaukee saw the second-lowest percentage of 3-1 counts in all of baseball, reaching this pitch in just 6.6% of their plate appearances. The MLB average was 8.1% this year.
  • Naturally, swinging at the first pitch as much as they did, it severely limits the chances a hitter reaches a 3-1 count. It's one of the two best counts to hit in, as batters owned a 1.249 OPS in MLB this year. 

3) Grounding Into Double Plays
  • The Brewers hit into the highest percentage of double plays in the NL (2nd-highest in MLB), bouncing into a twin killing in 13% of their opportunities.
  • While this is partly a fluky stat, it also stems from Milwaukee's lack of plate discipline. With a runner aboard, opposing pitchers know they can induce weak contact on the ground with pitches out of the zone against the Brewers' over-aggressive mentality.

4) Runner on 3rd, Less Than Two Outs
  • Milwaukee owned the third-lowest percentage of driving in a runner from 3rd with less than two outs in the NL. Brewers' batters delivered 49% of the time.
  • Too many times hitters failed to make contact, drive balls through a drawn-in infield, or loft a deep fly ball to the outfield. Of course, manager Ron Roenicke didn't help by calling for the contact play with the infield in. He cost hitters extra opportunities to bring in the run.

5) Pitches Per Plate Appearance
  • In another non-shocker, the Brewers saw the fewest pitches per plate appearance in MLB with a mere 3.65 pitches each time up. The issues go back to first-pitch swings and a lack of hitter's counts. Seeing so few pitches has a cause and effect from the game's opening pitch to the final out.
  • The inability to draw walks, failing to wait for a mistake pitch, and allowing the starting pitcher to stay strong are all problems that arise from a lineup full of free-swinging sticks. 

AP Photo - Associated Press
These ugly statistics, when grouped together up-and-down the batting order, create the likelihood of slumps when teams effectively scout and execute.

The best way to remain consistent and avoid long droughts - aside from having a bunch of All-Star talent - is to reach base and take advantage of poor pitches.

While Milwaukee's .311 on-base percentage was basically average in the NL, that was buoyed by a couple of hitters.

Of the eight players with at least 400 plate appearances for Milwaukee, five hitters owned an OBP below .325 with three of them under the .300 mark.

The club was built on power, but that disappeared as the year progressed. The power outage was due in part to the poor contact, pitcher's counts and lack of discipline seen in the stats above. 

Ben Margot - Associated Press
Many point to the amount of strikeouts the Brewers supposedly rack up, but the truth is that Milwaukee's hitters struck out the third FEWEST times in the NL, going down on strikes in 19.7% of their plate appearances.

Remember, the Brewers saw just over three-and-a-half pitches per plate appearance, making it difficult to strikeout when you so often put the ball in play before you even see a third pitch.

This also limits walks, of course, where the Brewers finished 11th out of 15 clubs (7.0%).
When brought together in a lineup filled with similar hitters, the five aforementioned stats are a lethal combination that mightily contributed to the offense's untimely death.

Management needs to take a long look at the type of hitters on the club, and at worst, seek to balance the styles and mentalities holding down the spots from one through eight.

Brewers Mix blog featured writers Tim Muma, John Linn
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